VS 23 · LHR → LAX

took off 6:58 PM BST (scheduled 5:55 PM BST → 9:28 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±4 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LHR

↓ VS's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LHR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

VS 23 · LHR → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?