VS 45 · LHR → JFK

took off 1:11 PM BST (scheduled 12:50 PM BST → 4:42 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
15%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LHR

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LHR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.99 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

VS 45 · LHR → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?