VS 73 · MAN → MCO

took off 1:26 PM BST (scheduled 12:10 PM BST → 5:01 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MAN

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MAN (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

VS 73 · MAN → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?