WN 1044 · BWI → LAS

took off 9:02 PM ET · landed 10:38 PM PT (scheduled 8:23 PM ET → 10:33 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LAS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at BWI that day

↑ 8pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling360 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip1.55 in

LAS (destination) Gusts34 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1044 · BWI → LAS

Odds over time

How late did it get to LAS?