WN 1058 · BWI → MCO

took off 11:39 AM ET · expected to land 1:43 PM ET (scheduled 10:58 AM ET → 1:30 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

73% chance · ±0 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

LIVE

On time or early
27%
15–30 min late
54%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ BWI is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 10am departures from BWI are usually not late

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.78 in

MCO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1058 · BWI → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?