WN 1289 · PHX → LAS

departs 7:40 AM MT · arrives 8:56 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at LAS that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Gusts to 35 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts35 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

LAS (destination) Gusts37 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.87 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1289 · PHX → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?