WN 1403 · MCO → BWI

departs 4:06 PM ET · arrives 6:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

59% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at BWI that day

↑ 4pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BWI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

BWI (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.78 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1403 · MCO → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?