WN 1561 · BWI → MCO

departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 8:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.83 in

MCO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1561 · BWI → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?