WN 1804 · BWI → AUA

took off 10:56 AM ET · expected to land 3:07 PM AST (scheduled 10:20 AM ET → 2:56 PM AST)

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at AUA more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUA?

LIVE

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
52%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↓ 10am departures from BWI are usually not late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.78 in

AUA (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1804 · BWI → AUA

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUA?