WN 1920 · PHX → SJD

departs 11:19 AM MT · arrives 1:35 PM MST

Your aircraft is N7847A (B737), coming in as WN 3500 from SJC: in the air, landing about 10:07 AM MT, 66 min before departure.

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SJD more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +35 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SJD?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
44%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ 11am departures from PHX are often late

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Arrivals into SJD at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.46 in

SJD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1920 · PHX → SJD

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJD?