WN 2019 · SFO → SAN

departs 10:35 AM PT · arrives 12:16 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 1.3 in of rain forecast at SAN that day

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2019 · SFO → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?