WN 2376 · BWI → MCI

took off 8:37 PM ET · expected to land 9:48 PM CT (scheduled 7:45 PM ET → 9:31 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

80% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCI?

LIVE

On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
55%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at BWI that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling350 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip1.54 in

MCI (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2376 · BWI → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?