WN 3039 · MCO → ABQ

took off 10:01 AM ET · expected to land 11:18 AM MT (scheduled 9:30 AM ET → 11:20 AM MT)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ABQ?

LIVE

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

ABQ (destination) Gusts41 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3039 · MCO → ABQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to ABQ?