WN 3474 · SAN → SFO

departs 10:55 AM PT · arrives 12:32 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 1.3 in of rain forecast at SAN that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.04 in

SFO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3474 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?