Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3760
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Today
WN 3760 · ATL → BWI
departs 10:30 PM ET · arrives 12:34 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
10pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.54 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.