WN 4567 · MCO → BWI

departs 1:32 PM ET · arrives 3:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ 1pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.15 in

BWI (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.54 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4567 · MCO → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?