WN 4653 · BWI → MCO

left the gate 9:43 AM ET · taxiing (scheduled 9:25 AM ET → 11:57 AM ET)

Your aircraft is N8328A (B738), coming in as WN 4653 from MSP: landed 8:32 AM ET.

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ BWI is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.76 in

MCO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4653 · BWI → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?