Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 487 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

Sunday, October 11

WN 487 · DEN → SAT

departs 4:45 PM MT · arrives 8:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 163h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Sunday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±15 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

Typical odds come from past years’ weather on this date, so there are no forecast drivers yet.

Weather at each end

Too early for a weather forecast for Sun, Oct 11. These odds use the weather this date has had in past years; the forecast for DEN and SAT appears here about 3 days before departure.

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 487 · DEN → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?