WS 1087 · LAS → YYC

took off 8:51 AM PT · expected to land 12:02 PM MDT (scheduled 8:36 AM PT → 12:27 PM MDT)

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at YYC more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to YYC?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at LAS that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at YYC that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ YYC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts35 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.13 in

YYC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WS 1087 · LAS → YYC

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYC?