Y4 1883 · PHX → GDL

took off 9:56 AM MT · expected to land 1:12 PM CST (scheduled 9:42 AM MT → 1:32 PM CST)

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to GDL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL

↓ Arrivals into GDL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.42 in

GDL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

Y4 1883 · PHX → GDL

Odds over time

How late will it get to GDL?