Y4 1903 · EWR → GDL

took off 6:40 AM ET · expected to land 9:31 AM CST (scheduled 6:32 AM ET → 10:06 AM CST)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to GDL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from EWR are usually not late

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip1.01 in

GDL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

Y4 1903 · EWR → GDL

Odds over time

How late will it get to GDL?