Y4 505 · EWR → PBC

took off 7:16 AM ET · expected to land 9:43 AM CST (scheduled 7:00 AM ET → 10:34 AM CST)

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PBC more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PBC?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PBC

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.03 in

PBC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

Y4 505 · EWR → PBC

Odds over time

How late will it get to PBC?