Y4 7885 · PHX → CUL

departs 11:53 AM MT · arrives 1:58 PM MST

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at CUL more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CUL?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 35 kt forecast at PHX that day

↑ 11am departures from PHX are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Arrivals into CUL at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CUL

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts35 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

CUL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

Y4 7885 · PHX → CUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to CUL?