YV 6287 · LGA → IAD

departs 3:08 PM ET · arrives 4:49 PM ET

Your aircraft is N82338 (E75L), coming in as YV 4012 from IAD: in the air, landing about 2:55 PM ET, 6 min before departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

70% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
20%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 3.1 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.04 in

IAD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip2.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6287 · LGA → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?