YV 6301 · RDU → IAD

departs 3:12 PM ET · arrives 4:38 PM ET

Your aircraft is N87345 (E75L), coming in as YV 4029 from IAD: landed 3:19 PM ET.

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

95% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.06 mi, 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RDU that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 2.2 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ 3pm departures from RDU are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ RDU usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.06 mi Precip1.15 in

IAD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip2.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6301 · RDU → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?