YX 3586 · IAD → ROC

took off 1:06 PM ET · landed 1:53 PM ET (scheduled 12:44 PM ET → 2:13 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ROC?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 3.1 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ROC that day

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip2.24 in

ROC (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3586 · IAD → ROC

Odds over time

How late did it get to ROC?