YX 3715 · EWR → YUL

took off 6:12 PM ET · landed 7:04 PM EDT (scheduled 2:33 PM ET → 4:09 PM EDT)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to YUL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
✓

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 2pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling780 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.86 in

YUL (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3715 · EWR → YUL

Odds over time

How late did it get to YUL?