Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4390
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Today
YX 4390 · GSP → LGA
departs 10:30 AM ET · arrives 12:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/12 28%
Tue 10/13 18%
Wed 10/14 26%
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 24%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi forecast at GSP that day
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
GSP (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 0.36 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.91 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.