YX 4448 · MEM → ORD

left the gate 6:48 AM CT · taxiing (scheduled 6:38 AM CT → 8:43 AM CT)

Your aircraft is N428YX (E75L), coming in as YX 4663 from ORD: landed 5:27 PM CT.

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4448 · MEM → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?