YX 4471 · LGA → ORF

departs 1:03 PM ET · arrives 2:34 PM ET

Your aircraft is N111HQ (E75S), coming in as YX 4738 from BUF: landed 11:41 AM ET.

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORF that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.85 in

ORF (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4471 · LGA → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?