YX 4513 · CLE → LGA

took off 2:11 PM ET · landed 3:15 PM ET (scheduled 1:51 PM ET → 3:47 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±3 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

CLE (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.29 in

LGA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.54 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4513 · CLE → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?