YX 4540 · ORF → LGA

departs 8:34 AM ET · arrives 10:23 AM ET

Your aircraft is N406YX (E75S), coming in as YX 4519 from ORD: landed 9:59 PM ET.

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORF that day

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.44 in

LGA (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.93 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4540 · ORF → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?