YX 4550 · LGA → YUL

took off 8:38 AM ET · landed 9:33 AM EDT (scheduled 8:17 AM ET → 9:52 AM EDT)

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to YUL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.28 in

YUL (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4550 · LGA → YUL

Odds over time

How late did it get to YUL?