Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Today
YX 4581 · LGA → GSP
departs 7:54 AM ET · arrives 10:07 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/12 27%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14 17%
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi forecast at GSP that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into GSP at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.28 in
GSP (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 0.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.