YX 5786 · ORF → LGA

departs 2:24 PM ET · arrives 3:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
22%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORF that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.40 in

LGA (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.90 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5786 · ORF → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?