YX 5794 · CMH → LGA

departs 11:10 AM ET · arrives 1:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.18 in

LGA (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.93 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5794 · CMH → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?