Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
AVIANCA ECUADOR · FLIGHT 2K 7393
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
2K 7393 · JFK → GYE
departs 2:44 AM ET · arrives 8:03 AM -05
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 12%
Wed 10/14 14%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at GYE more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.1d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GYE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at GYE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to GYE?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at JFK that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GYE
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
GYE (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.