Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
AVIANCA ECUADOR · FLIGHT 2K 7394
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
2K 7394 · GYE → JFK
departs 7:58 PM -05 · arrives 3:42 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/13 12%
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15 21%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave GYE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GYE
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at JFK that day
Weather at each end
GYE (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.