Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
AVIANCA ECUADOR · FLIGHT 2K 7395
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
2K 7395 · JFK → GYE
departs 5:09 AM ET · arrives 10:33 AM -05
Your aircraft is N775AV (A20N).
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14 8%
Fri 10/16 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at GYE more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GYE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at GYE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GYE?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at JFK that day
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from JFK are usually not late
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.10 in
GYE (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.