9E 4924 · MKE → LGA

took off 12:21 PM CT · landed 3:00 PM ET (scheduled 10:38 AM CT → 1:56 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at LGA that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4924 · MKE → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?