9E 5260 · EWR → RDU

departs 2:31 PM ET · arrives 4:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±5 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 467 ft, visibility down to 1.33333 mi forecast at EWR that day

↑ 2pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling467 ft Visibility1.33333 mi Precip0.12 in

RDU (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5260 · EWR → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?