9E 5316 · JFK → RIC

took off 11:20 AM ET · landed 12:14 PM ET (scheduled 9:59 AM ET → 11:26 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RIC?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from JFK are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at RIC that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into RIC at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.10 in

RIC (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5316 · JFK → RIC

Odds over time

How late did it get to RIC?