Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

CAPE AIR · FLIGHT 9K 323 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12

9K 323 · AXA → STT

departs 9:45 AM AST · arrives 11:11 AM AST

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at STT more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STT?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at STT that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at AXA

↓ Arrivals into STT at that hour are usually not late

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

AXA (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

STT (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9K 323 · AXA → STT

Odds over time

How late will it get to STT?