Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 121
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
9X 121 · IAD → DUJ
departs 4:17 PM ET · arrives 5:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14 9%
Fri 10/16 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DUJ more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DUJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DUJ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DUJ?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at IAD that day
↓
Arrivals into DUJ at that hour are usually not late
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.11 in
DUJ (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.