Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 419
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
9X 419 · DFW → HOT
departs 10:02 AM CT · arrives 11:34 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOT more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at HOT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOT?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from DFW are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Arrivals into HOT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOT (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.