Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1378 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Yesterday

AA 1378 · LAS → DFW

departs 12:09 AM PT · arrives 4:51 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 19h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 12am departures from LAS are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

DFW (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1378 · LAS → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?