AA 1524 · PHL → SFO

took off 10:04 AM ET · expected to land 12:33 PM PT (scheduled 8:28 AM ET → 11:29 AM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
87%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHL that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

SFO (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1524 · PHL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?