AA 1526 · PHL → IAH

departs 1:06 PM ET · arrives 3:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHL that day

↓ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.51 in

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling8,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1526 · PHL → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?