AA 1564 · LAS → ORD

took off 2:32 PM PT · expected to land 7:30 PM CT (scheduled 2:03 PM PT → 7:39 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
36%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 2pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1564 · LAS → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?