AA 1834 · RSW → PHL

departs 4:50 PM ET · arrives 7:45 PM ET

Your aircraft is N177US (A321).

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at RSW that day

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1834 · RSW → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?